How Is Blackjack Probability Calculated?

Blackjack probability is calculated in a very specific way. The dealer hits on any two cards, the player either hits or sits. If the player hits, the dealer then drAWS two cards.

If the player sits, the dealer then drAWS one card. The probabilities of these events are then determined based on the rules of blackjack.

The probability of drawing a card in any given circumstance is simply P(card drawn). For example, if the deck has 52 cards and the player is dealt a six and five, the probability of drawing a card is 1/52 or 0.018%.

This means that for every 18 cards dealt, one will be a six and one will be a five. In other words, if the deck has been shuffled prior to being dealt to the player, then the probability of drawing any given card will not change.

The probabilities of various outcomes are then determined using simple math. For example, if P(hit) is 50% and P(draw) is also 50%, then the probability of winning when playing blackjack is:

P = (1-P)(50%) = 49%.

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